Jackson Miller

Now is the wrong time to buy a new cellphone. The landscape is going to change drastically over the next few months. If you ask me there are very few safe mobile decisions these days. There are some safe bets though; lets start with those before I detail why I think it is generally a horrible time to purchase a new cellphone.

• iPhone – The iPhone is not for me, but it is a very cool device and there is nothing like it. Sure the second generation iPhone will be better (definite 3G, probably UI improvements, possible GPS), but it is not going to come out for at least another 5 months. As much as I want a new iPhone to come out in Q1 ’08, that is not looking likely. So, if you want an iPhone then go ahead and get one. The longer you wait the more you will be pissed when a new version eventually comes out. A plus is that I don’t know a single iPhone owner who doesn’t love the device.
• Blackberry Curve – The Curve is the best Blackberry ever created, hands down. It is a stylish and compact phone with a great keyboard. A huge plus for many is that it is one of the few Blackberry phones with a camera. On AT&T you can get a Curve with GPS; on TMobile you can get a Curve with WiFi. Since there is no Curve with GPS and WiFi I would have to go with GPS. The only downside to the Curve is that it lacks 3G internet.
• Nokia N95 – Who are we kidding? You are not going to spend that much on a cellphone. It doesn’t matter how badass it is.

In addition to safe bets, there are some particularly bad choices. These basically boil down to two categories: anything from Palm, and anything with Windows Mobile OS. No matter how much the Blackjack 2 seems like a cool device, Windows Mobile is garbage. While I am a relatively happy Treo user, the future is just too bright for everyone except Palm. The plus side to Palm devices has always been a great keyboard (licensed from Blackberry) and a touchscreen. Thanks to the iPhone, there is no shortage of touchscreens these days.

A big reason I am so bearish on buying new mobile devices right now is that the carriers are about to go through a period of rapid evolution. Amazingly it looks like cellular companies are being dragged kicking and screaming into the world of “openness”. Verizon and Sprint have both already made announcement about how they will be providing service with less lock-in during 2008. Early termination fees are becoming a thing of the past. And then there is Android.

I don’t have a crystal ball to tell me if Android will be a huge success or not, but I am willing to bet it will be disruptive. Android (and the eminent iPhone SDK) is really going to open up the mobile market to software developers. When that happens we are going to see huge improvements in the way we use our cellphones. Sure, we will see new types of applications take off and there will be lots of Mobile 2.0 apps. The biggest changes may very will be in better messaging applications.

As soon as we have open devices on the market we will see mobile apps that completely and permanently blur the lines between IM, SMS, and email. In addition to text messaging, we will see medium-agnostic messaging like in the chat feature on kyte.tv (one conversation can contain text, video, and audio). URLs become more useful on mobile devices as services like del.icio.us and stumble upon become readily accessible on our phones. We will be able to switch back and forth from web, chat, video, and voice like never before. In order to do so we will want phones with more memory and multi-tasking abilities.

Notice that all the phones on my safe bets list were essentially smart phones. This isn’t because I am thinking everyone wants smart phones, but rather I am thinking those are phones that have the power and popularity to make it through the transition. I also really like the Nokia 6500 classic, it is small, good-looking, and just a phone. I just don’t know if it will be the kind of power-communication device we will have in 6 months (but is sure is simple and pretty).

The iPhone raised the bar for design and multimedia. Over next 6 months we will see the bar get raised for software and messaging. At least, that is what I am telling myself as I sit on my hands and refrain from ordering a new phone.

Update: As soon as I posted this I saw Gartner is predicting strong cellphone sales in the 4th Quarter.

Update 2: The Sony P1i is a step in the direction I am talking about. It has two cameras: a 3.2 megapixel on the back for taking pictures, and another one on the front for video chat. Guess what, the video chat already works on 3G networks. Plus it has an RSS reader and push email included, running on top of Symbian OS. Of course, no US Carrier sells this phone, but that won’t matter soon as BYOP becomes more common.

We now know there will be a true iPhone SDK available in February 2008. Of course, this means the details will be announced (and maybe a preview of some sort) at MacWorld 2008 during Steve’s Keynote (Jan 14, 2008?).

Today’s announcement provided a few clues as to what to expect. Most importantly we learned that these will be installable applications, not web applications. The whole “web-apps are good enough” thing bought them some time, but that was never going to last.

Apple is worried about security, and having the most powerful and most popular smart phone on the planet will make the iPhone a huge target. iPhone applications will be authenticated somehow. This means that to publish iPhone applications you will most certainly need to be a member of the Apple Developer Connection. This actually reminds me of the whole MCSE religion program.

Now, for the real speculation…
There will most definitely be more Multi-touch devices from Apple. There will be some sort of subcompact laptop / tablet released within the next 12 months. My bet is that we will hear about it at MWSF. I am convinced that there is no way Apple would release such a device without a mobile broadband card in it, but the rumors I have heard before didn’t mention it. There is just no way that they are developing Multi-touch, and an SDK without making it available to more devices. Think of the Apple TV and how the same stuff is integrated into all Macs now, think of CoverFlow and how it is integrated into Finder now (or when Leopard comes out next week). There will be more devices.

So, if you want to develop Multi-touch applications for the iPhone and more, you might want to ask Santa for an ADC membership.

P.S. Steve, your announcements need permalinks. What, are you blogging with iWeb?

More and more of my friends are picking up iPhones. The latest convert is Cory. My dad thinks it is only a matter of time before I join the club/cult. I have to admit, there are some things that continue to tempt me about the iPhone. Still, I just don’t see any way that I will buy one any time soon.

I still believe that the iPhone is good for all cellular customers. I am glad more people are using the iPhone. It is definitely stepping up the handset market in the US. Application developers are paying attention to the mobile platform. While I think native apps are better than web apps for may things, the lack of a sanctioned SDK for the iPhone has resulted in more mobile applications being available for every phone with a browser (probably an unintended consequence).

The iPhone itself is great. If it weren’t for these issues I would have already made the switch.

• The AT&T data plans and TXT plans for the iPhone are considerably more expensive than what I am paying Sprint for unlimited data and unlimited TXT on my Treo.
• The EDGE speeds are considerable slower than the EVDO speeds I am used to.
• That pesky touch screen keyboard. I do a lot of typing on my Treo.

It seems like my list of reasons for not switching to AT&T and buying an iPhone is shrinking. If Apple releases a 3G iPhone in Q1 2008 (which I would bet money one) then I am going to be on shaky ground.

Must. stay. strong.

update
On a related note, investors seem to like the details of the Apple store credit for early iPhone adopters. I think this is because there is only a 2.5 month redemption period. That will reduce the number of store credits that are actually redeemed. I am guessing it will be 50% of the credits redeemed for products at a 50% profit margin leading to a $0.25 on the $1 cost to Apple for this exceptional token of good will. (Assuming AT&T is not picking up a portion of the tab). That is money well spent.

One of the most tantalizing tech rumors is that Apple will release a cell phone. The rumor has existed for at least a couple of years, but it has never happened. I am seeing renewed rumors that the cell phone will be launched at the Apple World Wide Developer’s Conference in a couple of weeks. I have my doubts that the phone will be released that soon, but I am increasingly convinced that Apple will indeed release iPhone in the not-too-distant future.

The mobile phone is going to be a big platform for business users. It will be this melding of Business Intelligence with Continuous Partial Attention. It will be much like the PDA craze of 1999-2000; everyone will get one and then everyone will move on. It is going to be a fun space to be for a while, but Microsoft will dominate it. At the end of the day it will probably just mean that business users will use SMS text messaging and Blackberry users will laugh at them for coming to the party so late.

If you think that sounds like a market that Apple doesn’t want to enter then you are right. The market that Apple will soon enter is ripe for innovation and exploitation. It is a consumer market that needs a little glue to pull it all together. It is a market that Apple is capable of dominating. Like the iPod, this market will also provide a segue to selling more computers. Like other markets Apple has dominated this market is full of creative people who want things to ‘just work’.

Mobile phones are not just about making phone calls. They are about staying connected; they are about communicating. The Apple phone is going to make it easier for people to stay connected with audio, video, and text using their mobile phone. People will be able to take photos and videos and share them using their .mac account. Those pictures and videos will sync up with your Apple computer so you can use iPhoto and iMovie. Steve Jobs will stand on stage and demonstrate iLife ’07 by compiling a movie about a road trip using videos and pictures created from his Apple phone. You will be able to create podcasts directly from your phone too.

Of course your Apple phone won’t just be about creating content. You will be able to download music from iTunes Music Store. Of course, that means you will also be able to subscribe to podcasts and TV shows to listen to and watch on your phone. Ringtones will be added to the iTunes Music Store and will be available at a lower price than anywhere else (I am guessing $0.25 per ringtone). Of course the phone will only be available through Cingular (though it may be under a re-branded Apple-centric name)

Every feature of your Apple phone will provide a reason to buy an Apple computer or sign up for a .mac account. Steve Jobs will make the digital life of the consumer easier if they just use all of his products. Unlike the business market I described earlier, the Apple phone will be a part of lasting change in how we use our cell phones. The Apple phone will not be inventive in the services it provides, but it will be innovative. It will take the things that people want to do and make them easy to do, as long as you are willing to pay the Apple Tax. Of course it won’t hurt that it will be in a really great looking package too.