One of the most tantalizing tech rumors is that Apple will release a cell phone. The rumor has existed for at least a couple of years, but it has never happened. I am seeing renewed rumors that the cell phone will be launched at the Apple World Wide Developer’s Conference in a couple of weeks. I have my doubts that the phone will be released that soon, but I am increasingly convinced that Apple will indeed release iPhone in the not-too-distant future.
The mobile phone is going to be a big platform for business users. It will be this melding of Business Intelligence with Continuous Partial Attention. It will be much like the PDA craze of 1999-2000; everyone will get one and then everyone will move on. It is going to be a fun space to be for a while, but Microsoft will dominate it. At the end of the day it will probably just mean that business users will use SMS text messaging and Blackberry users will laugh at them for coming to the party so late.
If you think that sounds like a market that Apple doesn’t want to enter then you are right. The market that Apple will soon enter is ripe for innovation and exploitation. It is a consumer market that needs a little glue to pull it all together. It is a market that Apple is capable of dominating. Like the iPod, this market will also provide a segue to selling more computers. Like other markets Apple has dominated this market is full of creative people who want things to ‘just work’.
Mobile phones are not just about making phone calls. They are about staying connected; they are about communicating. The Apple phone is going to make it easier for people to stay connected with audio, video, and text using their mobile phone. People will be able to take photos and videos and share them using their .mac account. Those pictures and videos will sync up with your Apple computer so you can use iPhoto and iMovie. Steve Jobs will stand on stage and demonstrate iLife ‘07 by compiling a movie about a road trip using videos and pictures created from his Apple phone. You will be able to create podcasts directly from your phone too.
Of course your Apple phone won’t just be about creating content. You will be able to download music from iTunes Music Store. Of course, that means you will also be able to subscribe to podcasts and TV shows to listen to and watch on your phone. Ringtones will be added to the iTunes Music Store and will be available at a lower price than anywhere else (I am guessing $0.25 per ringtone). Of course the phone will only be available through Cingular (though it may be under a re-branded Apple-centric name)
Every feature of your Apple phone will provide a reason to buy an Apple computer or sign up for a .mac account. Steve Jobs will make the digital life of the consumer easier if they just use all of his products. Unlike the business market I described earlier, the Apple phone will be a part of lasting change in how we use our cell phones. The Apple phone will not be inventive in the services it provides, but it will be innovative. It will take the things that people want to do and make them easy to do, as long as you are willing to pay the Apple Tax. Of course it won’t hurt that it will be in a really great looking package too.
One Comment
it could be that Apple will release a “iPhone” as a cell phone, but somehow I doubt it. First, and maybe most importantly, Apple rarely positions themselves with a US exclusive business. Even the iPod and iTunes were available globally even when the iTMS was only available in the US. But my making a cellphone, Apple will have to decide what market to sell in, and what market is carved off the map.
To do everything you listed, they’ll have to use a high speed 3G service, the choices are EV-DO, UMTS or HSDPA (a high-speed data version of UMTS). EV-DO would make sense in the US, but would lock Apple out of the European market and most of the Asian market. UMTS or HSDPA would lock Apple out of most of the US and a significant amount of Asia. They could support all of the technologies, but would cost them a lot in terms of development and support to make their software and products compatible with the mobile protocols. So, I think they’d have to make that hard decision.
Second, can you really Verizon or Vodafone selling an Apple handset, with all of the features listed, and without charging a huge monthly tariff? Or worse, limiting the features drastically. Apple could go it alone as an MVNO (like Disney), but that would make whatever product they sell a US only device.
What I can see, is Apple going after the mobile VoIP market. It’s not new, and has some players, but is mostly in a nascent form. A perfect opportunity for a company like Apple to put their stamp on it. Imagine if they released a wireless VoIP device that connected through a portal of their own, with a VoIP or POTS bridge. Then give it [strike]WiFi[/strike] Airport, give it iTunes, iChat, Safari and Mail, and you have the making of a nice mobile convergence device. Give it a camera and a mobile version of iPhoto and it could be a winner.
What they would need, and may be what they’ve waited for, is enough hotspots to make the service useful away from home. And I think for that they’d partner with one of the players in that segment (think google, yahoo, earthlink…etc) for seamless access out of the box…
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